Economic Wheel – On Vacant Property
Management
– Achieving Spacious Buildings
with Numerous Units
经济之轮 – 论空置物业管理
– 安得广厦千万间
1.
Status Analysis
Status Analysis
Real estate economy plays a decisive role in every country’s economic
development. The healthy development of real estate economy is also a necessary
guarantee for the sound economic development, avoiding economic crisis in every
countries. Many economic crises in the United States and the West were
caused by the unhealthy development of real estate economy. For example, the
most recent financial crisis in the United States in 2007 was caused by
the unhealthy development of real estate economy. In real estate economic
management, the management of vacant property is the most critical. Because
vacant properties are the property
economic (real estate economy) bubbles lie in, is the unhealthy development of
real estate economy. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth
analysis on vacant property management.
development. The healthy development of real estate economy is also a necessary
guarantee for the sound economic development, avoiding economic crisis in every
countries. Many economic crises in the United States and the West were
caused by the unhealthy development of real estate economy. For example, the
most recent financial crisis in the United States in 2007 was caused by
the unhealthy development of real estate economy. In real estate economic
management, the management of vacant property is the most critical. Because
vacant properties are the property
economic (real estate economy) bubbles lie in, is the unhealthy development of
real estate economy. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth
analysis on vacant property management.
2.
Real estate Economic Management
Real estate Economic Management
Before talking specifically about vacant property
management, let us look at the whole content of real estate economic management
comprehensively first. Real estate economy is mainly related to the followings:
property product production, sales and
maintenance. Property product production is similar to the manufacturing of
other physical products, the difference is that property product production
requires certain properties as foundation, and property products can be in
circulation but it can not be moved. Of cause, the management of real estate
economy should be analyzed from an economic point of view. This includes: market demand, supply, land resource stock,
property resource conversion, price of property products, economic wheel
chaining capabilities ( driving force for related industry), the degree of
national participation in the property economy, the saturation degree and
bubble volume of property products, the tightness of property projects, the
control of real estate economic development, and so on. Vacant property
management is ignored by most of us, and no one specifically raise the vacant
property to economic level to study. No matter in what kind economic
development situation, vacant property phenomenon always exists, is the
critical for the control of real estate economic development.
3. Vacant Property Management
Vacant property management mainly lies in two aspects:
one aspect is the control of real estate
economy, which is the specific application of Beizhan economic control
theory in real estate economy; one aspect is the digestion of ubiquitous vacant property.
3.1. Control of Vacant Property
Beizhan economic control theory
advocates the use of various economic levers to realize real-time
self-regulation of real economy as much as possible. So, in the real estate
economy, to realize the healthy development of real estate economy, which is to
avoid the emergence of the real estate bubble, the economic control levers can
be used is the vacant property tax[1]. Vacant property tax is a kind
of economic lever to realize real – time self-regulation of real estate
economic development.
3.2. Digestion of Vacant
Properties
In real estate economic development, no matter what kind economic situation
(hot and cold) there is, many properties will have vacant phenomenon,
especially in high-rise properties. For example, the apartment vacancy rate in Toronto is about 1.8% in
2015[2]. It is estimated that there are approximately 377,000 vacant
property units in Canada,
with an actual figure of 610,000[3]. Vancouver has about 20,000 vacant property
units [3]. Some vacant property units may have been almost never
rented out because of their location, highness, and so on. At present there are
more than 90,000 people in Toronto
line up waiting for low-rent housing [3]. When these social vacant property resources are integrated into the
public service system, vacant properties will be utilized. This will not
only bring considerable profits to the owner of the vacant properties, but also
will provide better housings for the majority of the members of the society, at
the same time, it will also save a lot
of costs for the Government housing projects. This will be a win-win
cooperation, all happy thing. This is what I called the “Achieving Spacious Buildings with Numerous Units “, which is the ideal of Datong
society.
4. Theoretical Basis
In analyzing real estate economy, following economic theories shall be the
mainly applied:
4.1. Limited Economic Development Theory
Here the following concepts mentioned in limited
economic development theory shall be mainly applied: product use saturation
degree, bubble degree, bubble volume, industry bubble volume, etc., shall be
used to the real-time monitoring of a country’s or region’s real estate
economy, so as to create conditions for the real-time control with the self
adjustment nature.
4.2. Beizhan Economic Control Theory
Here we shall apply the thoughts of Beizhan economic control theory to analyze and establishing model for real
estate economy development based on facts and find one or more control levers
to realize the healthy development with self-regulation.
4.3. Sharing Economic Theory
Here we shall use the advocate of sharing social resources in haring economy
theory to make a socialized comprehensive arrangement of property resources in
real estate economy, so as to realize the improvement of the use saturation of
property products, the reduction of the bubble degree, the industry bubble
degree, automatically avoid the bubble economy, so that current real estate
economy can also become an intensive economy.
5.
Case Study
Case Study
5.1. Self-Control of the Property Economy
The vacant property tax is a kind of economic lever to realize real – time self
– regulation of real estate economic development. See section 3.2 for details.
5.2. The Ghost
City in China
For China’s
ghost cities, everyone who knows China’s real estate economy, will
not have no understanding. The so-called ghost cities in China are the
property districts developed in pieces in many cities, which have very few
people living inside after completion, these are the pieces of vacant
properties. This phenomenon arises from the fact that the real estate economy
in China
lacks proper self-regulated control levers, such as vacant property tax. Of
course, the creating reason also lies in the unreliability of market research and
investment assessment. Only by applying
Beizhan economic control theory and limited economic development theory to the
future real estate economic development, can China
avoid the creation of new ghost cities, can China make the real estate economy
out of the shadow of bubble economy.
To absorb existing ghost cities (vacant properties), the sharing economic
theory should also be used. Along with comprehensive arrangements for economic
development, it may be appropriate to arrange all people’s housing and working
nationwide, especially the vulnerable groups in various cities. So we can
achieve the win-win cooperation, all happy result. (So we can) achieve what I
called the “”Achieving Spacious
Buildings with Numerous Units ” the ideal of Datong society. Of
course, due to the huge number of ghost cities and areas, the digestion of
ghost cities will be a long-term task.
6.
Summary
Summary
The vacant property management is the key for the healthy
development of real estate economy. The
economic and social benefits of vacant property management are enormous. For
example, vacant property management will
bring Canadian property owners billions of dollars in profits (or billions of dollars in profit lost saving), will save billions of dollars in
government spending for Canada.
At the same time it will provide good living environments for a large
number of members of our society.
Vacant property
management has greater significances to China. , the activation
of the entire ghost city property (vacant property management will
create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China. The
allocation and arrangement of the supporting economic activities will also
create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China.
management has greater significances to China. , the activation
of the entire ghost city property (vacant property management will
create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China. The
allocation and arrangement of the supporting economic activities will also
create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China.
The social benefits of the activation of Ghost cities will liberate the
general public and vulnerable groups for the second time. Their lives will open
a new chapter on this. Therefore, developing real estate economy, development,
construction is one aspect; the vacant property management is another more
important aspect. Otherwise, the real estate economy will become a blind
developed economy, a bubble economy, and eventually will lead to economic
crises round by round.
general public and vulnerable groups for the second time. Their lives will open
a new chapter on this. Therefore, developing real estate economy, development,
construction is one aspect; the vacant property management is another more
important aspect. Otherwise, the real estate economy will become a blind
developed economy, a bubble economy, and eventually will lead to economic
crises round by round.
1.
现状分析
现状分析
房地产经济在各国的经济发展中均占有举足轻重的地位，房地产经济的良性发展也是各国经济良性发展，避免经济危机的必要保证。美国和西方的多次经济危机均是由于房地产经济的不良发展而造成的，例如：最近一次的美国20007 年的金融危机就是由于房地产经济的不良发展所造成的。在房地产经济管理中，对于空置物业的管理是最为关键的。因为空置物业是物业经济（房地产经济）泡沫之所在，是房地产经济不良发展之所在。因此很有必要对空置物业的管理进行深入的分析。
2.
房地产经济管理
房地产经济管理
在具体谈到空置物业管理之前，让我们首先来全面地考察一下房地产经济管理的全部内容。房地产经济主要涉及以下内容：物业产品的生产，销售及维护。物业产品同其他实物产品的制造应当是相似的，所不同的是物业产品的制造需要一定的物业为基础，而且物业产品是可以流通但却是不可以移动的。房地产经济的管理当然是应当从经济学的角度来分析，这其中应包括：市场需求量，供应量，土地资源存量，物业资源的转换，物业产品的价格，经济轮的链动能力（相关行业的拉动力），物业经济的国民参与度，物业产品的饱和度和泡沫量，物业项目的紧密度，房地产经济发展的控制，等等。空置物业的管理是大家所忽视的，更没有人专门将空置物业提升到经济学的高度来加以研究。无论在何种经济发展状况下，空置物业的现象总是存在的，是控制房地产经济发展的关键。
3.
空置物业管理
空置物业管理
空置物业管理主要在于两个层面：一个层面在于房地产经济的控制，也就是备战经济控制论在房地产经济中的具体应用；一个层面在于普遍存在的空置物业的消化。
3.1.
空置物业的控制
空置物业的控制
备战经济控制论主张利用多种经济杠杆对现实经济尽可能地实现实时自我调节。那么，在房地产经济中，要实现房地产经济的良性发展，也就是要避免房地产泡沫的出现，可以利用的经济控制杠杆就是空置物业税[1]。空置物业税是一种实现房地产经济发展实时自我调节的经济杠杆。
3.2.
空置物业的消化
空置物业的消化
在现实的房地产经济发展中，无论是什么经济情形（热和冷），许多物业均会存在空置的现象，尤其是高层物业。例如：2015年多伦多的公寓空置率大概是1.8%
[2] . 据估计，加拿大全国共有约377，000空置物业单元，实际上的数字可能是610，000 [3]。温哥华市大概有20，000个空置物业单位
[3]。某些空置物业可能是由于其所处的位置，高度，等等因素，几乎从未有被出租过。而现时多伦多共有90，000多人在排队等候廉租屋 [3]。将这些社会空置物业资源纳入公共服务系统，则空置物业就将能够物有所用。这不仅能够给空置物业的所有者带来相当的利润，为广大的社会成员提供良好的安居物业，同时还将为政府节省许多安居工程的费用。这将是一件合作共赢，皆大欢喜的事情。这就是我所说的“安得广厦千万间”的大同社会的理想。
[2] . 据估计，加拿大全国共有约377，000空置物业单元，实际上的数字可能是610，000 [3]。温哥华市大概有20，000个空置物业单位
[3]。某些空置物业可能是由于其所处的位置，高度，等等因素，几乎从未有被出租过。而现时多伦多共有90，000多人在排队等候廉租屋 [3]。将这些社会空置物业资源纳入公共服务系统，则空置物业就将能够物有所用。这不仅能够给空置物业的所有者带来相当的利润，为广大的社会成员提供良好的安居物业，同时还将为政府节省许多安居工程的费用。这将是一件合作共赢，皆大欢喜的事情。这就是我所说的“安得广厦千万间”的大同社会的理想。
4.
理论依据
理论依据
在对房地产经济进行分析研究时，主要应当应用如下的经济理论：
4.1.
有限经济发展理论
有限经济发展理论
这里主要应当应用有限经济发展理论中所提到的产品的使用饱和度，泡沫度，泡沫量，行业泡沫量等概念，来对一个国家或地区的房地产经济进行实时的监控，为对房地产经济的自我调节性质的实时控制创造条件。
4.2.
备战经济控制论
备战经济控制论
这里主要应当应用备战经济控制论的思想来对房地产经济的发展进行基于事实的建模分析，并寻找一个或多个控制杠杆以实现自我调节下的良性发展。
4.3.
共享经济理论
共享经济理论
这里主要应当运用共享经济理论中所提倡的共享社会资源的主张来对房地产经济中的物业资源进行社会性的全面安排，从而实现物业产品使用饱和度的提高，泡沫度的减少，行业泡沫度的减少，自动地避免泡沫经济的产生，使现实的房地产经济也能够成为集约型经济。
5.
案例分析
案例分析
5.1.
物业经济的自我控制
物业经济的自我控制
空置物业税是一种实现房地产经济发展实时自我调节的经济杠杆。详见3.2。
5.2.
中国的鬼城
中国的鬼城
对于中国的鬼城，了解中国房地产经济的人，不会不无了解。所谓中国的鬼城就是存在于许多城市的成片开发的物业小区，建成后却很少有人居住，也就是成片的空置物业。这一现象的产生就在于中国的房地产经济缺乏应有的能够自我调节的控制杠杆，例如：空置物业税。当然，其产生的原因还在于市场调查和投资评估的不可靠性。中国只有应用备战经济控制论和有限经济发展理论于未来的房地产经济发展中，才能够避免产生新的鬼城，才能够使房地产经济走出泡沫经济的阴影。
要消化已经存在的鬼城（空置物业），也应当利用共享经济理论。在全面安排经济发展的同时，不妨适当地在全国范围内安排全民的安居就业，尤其是各个城市的弱势群体。这同样也可以实现合作共赢，皆大欢喜的结果。实现我所说的“安得广厦千万间”的大同社会的理想。当然，由于鬼城的数量和面积巨大，鬼城的消化将是一个长期的任务。
6.
总结
总结
空置物业的管理是房地产经济良性发展的关键，空置物业管理的经济效益和社会效益都是巨大的。例如：空置物业的管理将会使加拿大的物业拥有者获得几十亿的利润（或者说减少几十亿的损失），将使加拿大节省数十亿的政府开支。同时将会为数目众多的社会成员提供良好的安居环境。
空置物业的管理对于中国的意义更大，整个鬼城资产的盘活（空置物业管理）将为中国创造的经济效益应该在几百亿至几千亿之间，配套的经济活动的配置及安排所能为中国创造的经济效益也应该在几百亿至几千亿之间。
鬼城资产盘活的社会效益在于将会使普通大众及弱势群体获得二次解放。
他们的人生将就此开启崭新的篇章。因此，发展房地产经济，开发，建设是一个方面，空置物业的管理是更重要的一个方面。不然的话，房地产经济就会成为盲目开发的经济，成为泡沫经济，最终导致一轮又一轮的经济危机。
他们的人生将就此开启崭新的篇章。因此，发展房地产经济，开发，建设是一个方面，空置物业的管理是更重要的一个方面。不然的话，房地产经济就会成为盲目开发的经济，成为泡沫经济，最终导致一轮又一轮的经济危机。
[1].
Country Management – On Policy Amendment [国家管理 – 论政策的变更]
Country Management – On Policy Amendment [国家管理 – 论政策的变更]
— Beizhan Liu
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